Spike. Shock. Now What?

March 2026 - Spike. Shock. Now What?

Pump-Price Shock

Last week, Tom (hypothetically) pulled into his usual gas station and watched the numbers climb past $3.80 a gallon - the largest one-month jump in U.S. gasoline prices in thirty years. Heart racing, he immediately canceled the family weekend trip, skipped the grocery delivery he’d budgeted for, and even postponed his backdoor Roth IRA contribution “just until things settle down.”

Tom wasn’t being irresponsible. He was exhibiting a textbook case of recency bias - the cognitive shortcut that makes the most recent, vivid event (this sudden energy shock) feel far more important than the broader historical picture. Our brains are wired to over-weight what just happened and under-weight everything else. A 30%+ surge at the pump feels catastrophic right now, so we slash spending, shift portfolios, or freeze long-term plans in a panic that rarely serves our actual goals.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: that same bias is quietly shaping how millions of Americans are reacting to today’s energy volatility. We treat the latest headline as permanent, even though markets, supply chains, and household balance sheets have weathered similar shocks before. The result? Knee-jerk decisions that protect today’s wallet at the expense of tomorrow’s freedom.

This is exactly why we built Purpose-Built Planning.

It’s not another generic investment strategy. It’s a deliberate process that starts with your purpose - what you truly value - and engineers a comprehensive, tax-aware plan that connects every dollar you own. When energy prices spike, a Purpose-Built Plan doesn’t force you to choose between filling the tank and funding your future. Instead, it anticipates volatility, maintains diversification across resilient sectors, and keeps your lifestyle and legacy on track no matter what the next headline screams.

The question is simple but urgent: Are you still letting today’s pump prices dictate tomorrow’s possibilities? Or are you ready to build a plan that’s stronger than the next shock?

Visit lecontewealth.com to explore how our team can help you build stability.

What Are You Really Building

Loss has a way of sharpening perspective.

After my uncle passed, watching his life slowly turn into an estate sale forced me to rethink comfort, accumulation, and what truly matters.

It’s the same question we challenge families to answer every day.

Read more: What are you really building?

Alex Willard, EA
Partner
LeConte Wealth

Worms in the Big Apple

A lifetime of discipline should lead to clarity - not uncertainty.

In this hypothetical story, we follow a couple who did everything “right”: bought a modest home, saved consistently, avoided lifestyle creep, and built a solid foundation for retirement. But just as they reach the finish line, shifting tax policies force them to reconsider everything - from where they live to what they can leave behind.

It’s a powerful reminder that retirement planning isn’t just about what you save; it’s also about the environment you retire into.

Click here to read the full story and consider how these kinds of changes could impact your own plan.

Hoy Grimm
Founder
LeConte Wealth

Recently Published On Financial Friction

- Part 3: Understanding the Different Types of Annuities and When They May or May Not Make Sense

Doug Whitten

Client Adviser

LeConte Wealth

Economy In Focus

The Data:

• 4.4% - Unemployment rate rises to 4.4% as nonfarm payrolls contract by 92,000 in February
• 30% - U.S. gasoline prices surge more than 30% in a single month, the largest one-month increase in 30 years
• 2.7% - Federal Reserve raises its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast amid energy-driven price pressures

Commentary:

March painted a picture of an economy facing a classic stagflationary challenge: softening labor demand colliding with a sharp energy-driven inflation shock.

The labor market, once the clearest signal of economic strength, showed meaningful cooling in February. Nonfarm payrolls contracted by 92,000 jobs - the first outright decline in years - and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Year-over-year job growth slowed to just 0.1%, a pace historically seen only during recessions. Hiring remains uneven, concentrated in a handful of sectors while others see outright cutbacks, signaling that businesses are becoming more cautious about expanding payrolls.

At the same time, energy markets delivered a sudden and significant supply shock. U.S. gasoline prices jumped more than 30% in a single month - the largest one-month spike in three decades - pushing the national average above $3.80 per gallon in many regions. The surge, tied to geopolitical tensions and Middle East supply disruptions, has quickly lifted headline inflation expectations. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for March CPI climbed toward 2.9%, while core PCE inflation already stands at 3.1%. In response, the FOMC revised its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, effectively removing near-term rate-cut expectations from the table.

Despite these crosscurrents, the broader foundation of the economy retains important strengths. Household net worth reached a record $175 trillion at the end of 2025, supported by gains in home values and equities, providing a meaningful buffer against higher pump prices and helping sustain consumer spending in the near term. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling patience as it monitors both sides of its dual mandate.

Markets have begun to reflect this shifting environment in real time. Energy and materials sectors have outperformed, while consumer discretionary names and many growth stocks have lagged. Even within technology, valuations have compressed as investors weigh the durability of AI-driven productivity gains against rising input costs.

For long-term investors, the message is clear and timeless: headlines will always be noisy, sector rotations are a normal part of market cycles, and disciplined, goal-focused planning remains the most reliable edge. While near-term volatility from energy prices and labor-market softness is real, a balanced approach that emphasizes quality companies positioned to weather higher costs should serve portfolios well as 2026 unfolds.

LeConte In The News

This month, our team had the opportunity to step into the community in a meaningful way by supporting two incredible organizations.

We kicked things off at United Way’s Power of the Purse, and from everything we’re hearing, it may have been the best one yet. Even more impactful - over $39,900 was raised to support the Blount County community. We’re proud to come alongside an organization that brings people together in such a powerful way, and especially grateful for the women on our team who represented us so well.

Later in the month, we attended the CommunityWorx fundraiser, supporting their mission to serve our local community through four distinct programs. It was another reminder that real impact happens when people show up and invest in something bigger than themselves.

We’re thankful to play a small part in both of these efforts and inspired by the work being done right here in our community.

Contact us

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