The Data:
- 3 - Fed projects 3 rate cuts
- 0 - No more negative interest rates
- 1.8 Trillion - US Budget Deficit
Commentary:
The geopolitical scene today is like a tightrope walk between cooperation and conflict, with hotspots in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, not to mention the ongoing drama of US-China relations in this election year.
As for investing, we're staying true to our contrarian view, keeping an eye on the horizon for longer-term opportunities. While we've skipped our spring rebalance, we're monitoring closely for any out-of-balance moves in our models.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve played it cool in March, holding rates steady but still eyeing three rate cuts this year. Chair Jerome Powell's pledge to curb inflation to 2% sounds noble, but with inflation stubbornly above that mark for a decade, it's like aiming for a soft landing on a rocky runway.
In a strange turn of events, negative interest rates are officially a thing of the past since 2007, with Japan being the final flipper to the positive side.
Speaking of flip-flopping, government spending is in overdrive, contributing a whopping one-third of GDP growth in 2023. With the national debt ballooning to $34.5 trillion, up 47% in just four years, it's a bit like watching a runaway train with no brakes. And consumers aren't far behind, with credit card delinquencies on the rise.
Stay tuned for more on how the upcoming elections might shake things up. In the meantime, buckle up and consider cashing in some gains while you can. It's a wild ride out there!