The Data:
- 7 - The "Mag Seven"
- $1.08 trillion - 2023Q3 credit card outstanding balances
- 2% - Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimatation of growth in 2023Q4
Commentary:
Last month, we mentioned that recent economic developments were like "tossing a coin, uncertain and surprising."
Two months into Q4, we'd say that statement still stands.
The Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Alphabet A, Aplhabet C, Tesla) each reported top-and-bottom-line earnings beats, with Tesla as the only outlier. Peak optimisim around these names does come at a cost of overvaluation though. As these 7 stocks continue to diverge from the rest of the market it begs the question, "Is this rally sustainable?"
Investors and consumers both have shrugged off Fed hikes, as credit card outstanding balances rose in Q3 - now, over $1.08 trillion in credit card debt outstanding - highest balance on record. We also just saw 2023 holiday sales get off to a hot start with a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from 2022. In store sales crept up 1.1%.
Higher prices don't seem to be slowing down the consumer, with economic growth of 5.2% (revised) in Q3, but the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates a slower Q4 with only 2% growth. In addition, the Fed projects just a 1.5% U.S. GDP growth in 2024, with the potential of elevated rates staying longer than markets anticipate. We'll take a TBD approach on the projections.
The evolution of the year-long recession discussions is still uncertain, but our stance remains steadfast in advocating the principle of "control what you can control" regarding your comprehensive financial landscape. In the context of asset management, managing LWM partner, Hoy Grimm, encapsulated this sentiment in his recent blog post: "While cash yields are putting a smile on our faces, don't wait too long with the rest of the crowd. When things change, the exits get very crowded and chaotic."