The Data:Â
- 4.9% - GDP up in Q3
- 8% - 30-year mortgage rates highest since since 2000
- $1.766 trillion - Outstanding student loan debt in the US
Commentary:
Making sense of recent economic developments is like tossing a coin, uncertain and surprising.
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In the third quarter, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which represents the total value of goods and services, surged at an annual rate of 4.9%. To many, this uptick is unexpected, given the challenges of increasing prices and rising interest rates. Mortgage rates hit a staggering average of 8% in mid-October, the highest since 2000, making it necessary for prospective homebuyers to earn nearly $115,000 to afford a typical U.S. home.
Moreover, there's been a significant change in the landscape of student loans. After a lengthty forbearance period lasting forty-three months, students now have to resume their loan payments.
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One of the surprising aspects of the past year has been the resilience of consumers. To grasp the full picture, we need to consider the financial numbers since 2020:
- PPP loans amounted to $943 billion, with almost half of this forgiven.
- Three rounds of consumer stimulus checks for consumers added up to $814 billion.
- Payments on student debt, previously in forbearance, totaled $260 billion.
- Around 14 million households refinanced their mortgages, reducing their monthly payments and tapping into home equity, which accounts for $400 billion. (See Chart Below)
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Since 2020, over $2 trillion has made its way back into the pockets of consumers, sustaining stable spending trends. However, the era of very low interest rates that enabled these developments has ended. Now, the question is whether household finances will face tightening in the coming months.